Ok. I know. Last week I said I would be better. I have failed you all. It is the day of matchups and I am just barely getting this out. I can blame no one but myself. Still, I hope this finds you in time for at least the late afternoon games. I, Keith Richards, your advisor, solemnly swear that this will never happen again. I have a duty to provide you with the most accurate, freshest, sarcastic fantasy advice and I take that duty seriously. So, there will be a mandatory meeting after class. We will hug it out. For now, let’s talk some fantasy football.
Recap: Week 4
Last week, we studied Jordy Nelson as the buy of the week. Let’s review his numbers. Nelson had five catches for 48 yards, a touchdown, and a 2 PT conversion. This put Jordy five points over projection at 17.80 points. Unfortunately, I had him on my bench with a better matchup with Sammy Watkins. You can see the chemistry with Nelson and Carr growing. As the season progresses, I expect Nelson’s targets to stay steady, if not increase. He is currently owned in 74% of all fantasy football leagues per Yahoo Sports Fantasy. It’s worth a shot to get him if you still can.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams was the sell for last week. It is always a bold move to recommend kickers and D/ST in fantasy football. For me, it was the correct recommendation. They were torched by the Rams and received a whopping -5 points. Looking ahead at their schedule, there’s a few bright spots but not many. Might be best to play D/ST by waiver if Minnesota was the team you drafted.
Last, but not least, the bench for the week was Kareem Hunt. It appears that Mr. Hunt is a frequent visitor of www.nutsandboltssports.com. If so, show us some love and shout us out. Kareem had a phenomenal game against the Broncos. Half of it was the gameplan of the Broncos. The other half was just his amazing skill set. Hunt finished with 19 rushes for 121 and a touchdown. The icing on the cake was the 3 receptions for 54 yards. In a PPR league, 26.5 points. So, in this instance, I was wrong on that, at least for now. I still feel that Kareem will have forgettable weeks. It’s just the nature of the beast with the offensive nightmare that is the Chiefs. Just play him with caution. Now, let’s look forward to this week’s fantasy football market.
Buy: Dak Prescott, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys
I’m going out on a limb this week again with the buy. There is every reason to ignore this based on the statistics of Dak. Furthermore, there is every reason to ignore this based on the coaches and management for Dak Prescott. Yet, I’m still going to recommend this pick. Call me a sucker as a recent former Cowboys fan. Call me a chump for being a Dak stan, but I like this kid. I will now give you two reasons why this pick makes sense.
First, Zeke and the offensive line are starting to figure it out. When the run game is clicking in Dallas, all other phases of the game follow. The run game, most importantly, takes pressure off Dak. If there has been one criticism of mine of Prescott the past year or so, it’s his inability to handle pressure. When the pressure is lessened, he thrives. When Elliott is getting five, six, seven yards per carry on first and second down, the play action and read option are open for Dallas. These plays are the bread and butter for Prescott. As long as the run game flourishes, so will Dak.
Second, the coaching staff is giving Prescott more options at the line of scrimmage. In my opinion, Dak has never struggled with reading defenses. His big problem is an overload of information to process as far as the play calls are. Shortening the playbook and giving Dak two or three simples play to run based on the package is where he thrives. He’s not cerebral like Brady or Rodgers, but he has good instincts. Let him do what he does best and worry about clock management. Yes, that means you Mr. Clap Hands, Jason Garrett.
Sell: Chris Hogan, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
Let me start by saying I hold no grudges against Chris Hogan. I actually think that he would make a great WR2 on many teams. Hogan’s only downfall is that he plays for the Patriots. Really, that’s it. He’s the odd man out and there is really nothing that can be done about that. Between Josh Gordon, Edelman, Gronkowski, and James White, there are only so many targets available.
He’s battling for targets with Phillip Dorsett. Sometimes he will win that battle. Sometimes he will not. In four weeks of this fantasy football season, Hogan has 19 targets for 11 receptions, 143 yards, and two touchdowns. They’re not terrible numbers. They’re just not anything to write home about. Your time would be better spent seeking a flex position player (preferably a receiver) with great targets and opportunity.
Bench: John Ross, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
This one pains me. I had such high hopes for Ross coming into this season. I had him as one of my breakout stars for this year. So far, however, that hasn’t been the case. Last week, was actually John’s best week at over 13 points. One of the things that matter most in fantasy football, though, is targets. John Ross has not been getting them.
In four weeks, Ross has 13 targets. That’s only 3.25 targets a week. Again, in fantasy football, this is not good. His potential is such that he is worth a roster spot on most teams. So, selling him is not an option yet. That and he’s hurt this week so you don’t have a choice but to bench him. When he returns, though, give him some time. I’m certain he’ll blossom sooner or later.
As always, I hope that my advice serves you well and don’t forget to follow @NutsAndBoltsSP and @5280Keith for live reactions to the games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday. See you back next week my young padawans!