Welcome back, class! Can you feel that? Can you feel it?! That’s the feeling of being one week closer to football. Though, let’s be honest. We’re here because we want to be one week closer to fantasy football. So far, we’ve covered quarterbacks and wide receivers. I feel WR is the most important position but today we talk about the second most important position: running backs. As the season progresses, you will learn that I have a love/hate relationship with this position. It can either propel you to victory or drag you into despair. I seek to avoid the latter. Let’s get it!
Buy: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Comparatively speaking, David Johnson didn’t have a great season last year. That, though, has to be put into perspective. The Cardinals were terrible last season. I mean flat out TERRIBLE. While I don’t expect them to be Super Bowl contenders this season, I don’t expect them to be 3-13 again either. Another reason I expect Johnson to have a better season is that they have someone better under center.
Full disclosure, I don’t expect Kyler Murray to be the second coming of Showtime Mahomes, but the Cardinals can’t get much worse. Murray will open up the offense, which benefits David Johnson. Per NFL Fantasy, Johnson still put out 246.6 points last season. In my opinion, his rushing and receiving yards will increase. With an ADP of 7.2 in fantasy football, it’s more likely you’ll get Johnson than Kamara, Elliot, or Barkley. He will reward you for it.
Sell: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
First, let me state that this has nothing to do with what I think of Nick Chubb as a player. Personally, I think Chubb is a phenomenal running back. Chubb just has the misfortune that one of the top receivers in football decided to join his team. With Beckham and Landry at Mayfield’s disposal, Chubb is bound to see negative effects of that. At the end of the day, I don’t think he will care because they will be winning, but you should care as a fantasy football owner.
At an ADP of 12.4 (NFL Fantasy), the cost is just too high to take that risk. The NFL is now a passing league. Chubb is not what I would call dual-threat back. Last season, Chubb had 20 receptions for 149 yards. It’s not terrible by any means, but it’s not what you’d like to see from a back on what will be an (in my opinion) pass-happy team. Again, I think Chubb is great, but I just don’t think he’s worth where he is attainable.
Bench: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
This one should be obvious. Well, maybe not that obvious. A close second for this was Melvin Gordon of the Chargers, but Zeke wins this battle. God knows what Elliott is doing down in Cabo, but reports are that he is staying in shape. When he does accept the contract on the table, you want him on your team. Still, I caution the extent or lengths one should go to get him on their team.
Per ESPN, Ezekiel is still the 11th best (predicted) player overall for 2019. The issue is his ADP. NFL Fantasy Football has him at an ADP of 5.2. In one of my leagues, he was drafted 2nd overall. Under normal circumstances, there is no problem with that. The issue is that Zeke likely will not play in the preseason. Even if he plays in week one, he’s going to need some time to get up to football speed. So, don’t sabotage your team to get him. If you can get him, be patient. He will reward you in the end.
That’s all for today. I say today because we will have another session this week to discuss tight ends. We will finish up with defenses next week. Draft wisely. See me during office hours with any questions.